You’re reading the first ever issue of Biz Jet Buzz.

When I started this newsletter I was thinking…

“If I'd only started this earlier” - A lot of new writers say this.

They see the positive impact writing has for them.

Could be simply the therapeutic benefit of putting pen to paper. Or, they’ve grown a following, used writing to help grow a business or even published a book.

Whatever their win, they all say, with a slight tone of regret - “If I'd only started this earlier”

But none of those reasons resonate with me.

My ‘If I'd only started this earlier’ reason is this…

That big dip - that’s my reason.

That line represents the % of the worldwide business jet fleet available for sale over the last 20 years.

The deep dip is the Great Pandemic-Induced Biz Jet Boom!

It’ll go down in history so let’s label it now. You heard it here first.

The pandemic resulted in:

1.     Lot’s of wealth creation, especially at the top.

2.     An increase in the value of what business aviation provides - Less chance catching a flu flying private.

3.     A lockdown induced ‘You only live once’ (YOLO) sentiment.

A perfect storm.

Those who never chartered, chartered. Those who chartered, bought a jet card. Those who had a jet card, went into fractional. Those who owned a fraction, upgraded to full jet ownership.

Demand for private flying saw a step change.

An average year sees 8-9% of the fleet transacting. That’s around 1,500 deals a year.

In the last 20 years, this has never been higher than 10%.

In 2021 that changed! 13% of the fleet transacted!  - 2,272 deals, a record year!

By February 2022, the shelves were empty. The pre-owned jet market had been cleared out. Stocks depleted.

Any half decent jet that came to market sold instantly. 2022 was another bumoer year, 1,954 deals.

Prices of certain older models increased as much as 100% during this period. Machines depreciate remember. But the pandemic-induced market forces were strong, very strong!

The Great Pandemic-Induced Biz Jet Boom was a wild ride.

And that’s why I wish I’d started this newsletter earlier. I could have reported to you live. We could have lived it together.

But not to worry, I’m here now. And with every issue of Biz Jet Buzz you’re going to live and get smarter about the jet market with me.

The Great Pandemic-Induced Biz Jet Boom is now old news and we’re in a much different market today.

Different but better. It’s healthy and balanced. A market like 2021/2022 is phenomenal if you’re selling.

But it’s terrible, not only if you want to buy but also if you want to upgrade a jet. There’s nothing to upgrade into.

Thankfully for the buyer and the upgrader, pre-owned inventory levels have risen back from the record lows of 2022. Right now there are 1,263 jets for sale representing 6.4% of the fleet.

583 Light Jets are for sale = 6.8% of the total fleet.

370 Medium = 6.5%

310 Large = 7.3%

In December, inventory levels reached their highest point since 2020. We got to 6.5% availability. Strong end of year demand due to Bonus Depreciation in the US brought us back down to 5.9% but we’ve risen from there.

There’s a rule of thumb that says 10% availability is normal, but not all markets are equal and every jet market is finding it’s balance again.

From here I expect inventory levels to continue to rise but not by much.

When will supply & demand reach equilibrium? This is the burning question and a discussion topic for another issue of Biz Jet Buzz. Stay tuned!

There’s a lot to learn about the biz jet market. Climb the learning curve with me.

Until next time.

Live the buzz! 🐝

Colin

Jet Market Monday

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I'm Colin, I help jet owners and corporates upgrade, sell or find the perfect jet as part of a global team of aviation experts.

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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational and not advice for investment or financial decisions. Any and all opinions herein are the personal opinions of the author, Colin Dunne, unless stated otherwise.